Frequency analysis of nonstationary annual maximum flood series using the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions          下载免费PDF全文

Lei Yan  Lihua Xiong  Dedi Liu  Tiesong Hu  Chong‐Yu Xu 《水文研究》2017,31(1):69-89

The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Winter cover crops in Dutch maize fields: Variability in quality and its drivers assessed from multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2020

Planting a cover crop between the main cropping seasons is an agricultural management measure with multiple potential benefits for sustainable food production. In the maize production system of the Netherlands, an effective establishment of a winter cover crop is important for reducing nitrogen leaching to groundwater. Cover crop establishment after maize cultivation is obliged by law for sandy soils and consequently implemented on nearly all maize fields, but the winter-time vegetative ground cover varies significantly between fields. The objectives of this study are to assess the variability in winter vegetative cover and evaluate to what extent this variability can be explained by the timing of cover crop establishment and weather conditions in two growing seasons (2017–2018). We used Sentinel-2 satellite imagery to construct NDVI time series for fields known to be cultivated with maize within the province of Overijssel. We fitted piecewise logistic functions to the time series in order to estimate cover crop sowing date and retrieve the fitted NDVI value for 1 December (NDVI_Dec). We used NDVI_Dec to represent the quality of cover crop establishment at the start of the winter season. The Sentinel-2 estimated sowing dates compared reasonably with ground reference data for eight fields (RMSE = 6.6 days). The two analysed years differed considerably, with 2018 being much drier and warmer during summer. This drought resulted in an earlier estimated cover crop sowing date (on average 19 days) and an NDVI_Dec value that was 0.2 higher than in 2017. Combining both years and all fields, we found that Sentinel-2 retrieved sowing dates could explain 55% of the NDVI_Dec variability. This corresponded to a positive relationship (R² = 0.50) between NDVI_Dec and the cumulative growing degree days (GDD) between sowing date and 1 December until reaching 400 GDD. Based on cumulative GDD derived from two weather stations within Overijssel, we found that on average for the past three decades a sowing date of 19 September (± 7 days) allowed to attain these 400 GDD; this provides support for the current legislation that states that from 2019 onwards a cover crop should be sown before 1 October. To meet this deadline, while simultaneously ascertaining a harvest-ready main crop, in practice implies that undersowing of the cover crop during spring will gain importance. Our results show that Sentinel-2 NDVI time series can assess the effectiveness and timing of cover crop growth for small agricultural fields, and as such has potential to inform regulatory frameworks as well as farmers with actionable information that may help to reduce nitrogen leaching.  相似文献   

云南地区GPS基准站噪声模型分析          下载免费PDF全文

管雅慧  王坦  胡顺强  杨振宇 《全球定位系统》2020,45(2):68-73

以云南地区陆态网27个全球定位系统(GPS)基准站在2011-2017年不同时间跨度的观测数据为例,使用赤池信息量和贝叶斯信息量估计准则(AIC/BIC)对解算结果进行分析,从而确定其最优有色噪声模型.结果表明,不同时间跨度基准站各坐标分量上噪声特性主要体现为白+闪烁噪声(WN+FN)、幂律噪声(PL)模型组合.部分基准站在北向和垂向的最优噪声模型会随着观测时间的累积而改变,PL模型所占比例有所下降,WN+FN模型所占比例有所上升.当时间跨度大于5 a时,基准站噪声模型的稳定性显著提高.随着坐标时间序列积累时长的增加,未知噪声分量出现的可能性也相应提高.  相似文献   

GDCORS多星系统定位平台测试与分析          下载免费PDF全文

邓思胜  刘文建  胡斯斌 《全球定位系统》2020,45(2):74-79

广东省连续运行卫星定位服务系统(G DCORS)建成了兼容多星系统的北斗地基增强平台,组织开展了新平台与原平台的外业测试.并从内符合精度评定、重复性精度评定、外符合精度、初始化时长等方面对网络实时动态(RTK)定位结果进行了统计和比对分析.测试结果表明,新平台能够提供高可靠性、高精度的网络RTK服务.文中研究结果可为GDCORS用户使用新/原平台提供实际应用参考.  相似文献   

基于双谱滤波的综合脉冲星时算法研究          下载免费PDF全文

周庆勇  魏子卿  张华  刘思伟  孙鹏飞  张奋  姜坤  刘晓刚  李奎 《天文学报》2021,62(2):19-95

毫秒脉冲星的自转频率非常稳定,提供了一种独立的基于遥远自然天体并能持续数百万乃至数十亿年的时间基准,具有稳定性强、运行时间长、服务范围广等特点.为了减弱毫秒脉冲星计时观测中各种高斯噪声对脉冲星时的影响,研究了一种基于双谱滤波的综合脉冲星时构建算法,处理分析了国际脉冲星计时阵(International Pul-sar Timing Array,IPTA)最新发布的4颗毫秒脉冲星(PSR J0437-4715、J0613-0200、J1713+0747和J1909-3744)的观测数据,分析了不同时间尺度综合脉冲星时的稳定性,并与构成国际原子时(International Atomic Time,TAI)的4家授时单位原子钟稳定性进行了比较.结果表明:双谱滤波算法能够较好地抑制观测噪声,提高综合脉冲星时的稳定性.相比于经典加权算法,综合脉冲星时1 yr、10 yr稳定度从7.77×10^-14、8.56×10^-16分别提高到1.50×10^-14、3.50×10^-16,单脉冲星时稳定性的提升也类似.同时发现,综合脉冲星时稳定性在5 yr及以上时间尺度上优于原子钟稳定性,可用于改善当前原子时的长期稳定性.  相似文献   

Improved spatial delineation of streambed properties and water fluxes using distributed temperature sensing          下载免费PDF全文

Landon J. S. Halloran  Hamid Roshan  Gabriel C. Rau  Martin S. Andersen  R. Ian Acworth 《水文研究》2016,30(15):2686-2702

A new method was developed for analysing and delineating streambed water fluxes, flow conditions and hydraulic properties using coiled fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing or closely spaced discrete temperature sensors. This method allows for a thorough treatment of the spatial information embedded in temperature data by creating a matrix visualization of all possible sensor pairs. Application of the method to a 5‐day field dataset reveals the complexity of shallow streambed thermal regimes. To understand how velocity estimates are affected by violations of assumptions of one‐dimensional, saturated, homogeneous flow and to aid in the interpretation of field observations, the method was also applied to temperature data generated by numerical models of common field conditions: horizontal layering, presence of lateral flow and variable streambed saturation. The results show that each condition creates a distinct signature visible in the triangular matrices. The matrices are used to perform a comparison of the behaviour of one‐dimensional analytical heat‐tracing models. The results show that the amplitude ratio‐based method of velocity calculation leads to the most reliable estimates. The minimum sensor spacing required to obtain reliable velocity estimates with discrete sensors is also investigated using field data. The developed method will aid future heat‐tracing studies by providing a technique for visualizing and comparing results from fibre‐optic distributed temperature sensing installations and testing the robustness of analytical heat‐tracing models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Wetland hydroperiod classification in the western prairies using multitemporal synthetic aperture radar          下载免费PDF全文

Joshua S. Montgomery  Chris Hopkinson  Brian Brisco  Shane Patterson  Stewart B. Rood 《水文研究》2018,32(10):1476-1490

Wetlands represent one of the world's most biodiverse and threatened ecosystem types and were diminished globally by about two‐thirds in the 20th century. There is continuing decline in wetland quantity and function due to infilling and other human activities. In addition, with climate change, warmer temperatures and changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration are reducing wetland surface and groundwater supplies, further altering wetland hydrology and vegetation. There is a need to automate inventory and monitoring of wetlands, and as a study system, we investigated the Shepard Slough wetlands complex, which includes numerous wetlands in urban, suburban, and agricultural zones in the prairie pothole region of southern Alberta, Canada. Here, wetlands are generally confined to depressions in the undulating terrain, challenging wetlands inventory and monitoring. This study applied threshold and frequency analysis routines for high‐resolution, single‐polarization (HH) RADARSAT‐2, synthetic aperture radar mapping. This enabled a growing season surface water extent hyroperiod‐based wetland classification, which can support water and wetland resource monitoring. This 3‐year study demonstrated synthetic aperture radar‐derived multitemporal open‐water masks provided an effective index of wetland permanence class, with overall accuracies of 89% to 95% compared with optical validation data, and RMSE between 0.2 and 0.7 m between model and field validation data. This allowed for characterizing the distribution and dynamics of 4 marsh wetlands hydroperiod classes, temporary, seasonal, semipermanent, and permanent, and mapping of the sequential vegetation bands that included emergent, obligate wetland, facultative wetland, and upland plant communities. Hydroperiod variation and surface water extent were found to be influenced by short‐term rainfall events in both wet and dry years. Seasonal hydroperiods in wetlands were particularly variable if there was a decrease in the temporary or semipermanent hydroperiod classes. In years with extreme rain events, the temporary wetlands especially increased relative to longer lasting wetlands (84% in 2015 with significant rainfall events, compared with 42% otherwise).  相似文献   

The duration of near‐peak metamorphism from diffusion modelling of garnet zoning     

F. S. Spear 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2014,32(8):903-914

Garnet in a staurolite–kyanite zone sample from central Vermont displays a bell‐shaped Mn growth zoning with diffusional modification over the outer 100 μm. The diffusion is driven by the prograde net transfer reaction garnet + chlorite = kyanite + biotite as is evidenced by a well‐defined resorption zone on the rim. Analysis of the reaction history and resorbed garnet composition suggests that the peak temperature attained was 620–660 °C. Diffusional modelling of the rim diffusion provides an estimate of the duration of the metamorphic episode over which significant garnet diffusion occurs. The duration is a function of the assumed peak temperature and garnet diffusivities and range from a few hundred thousand years to a few million years. Such short durations require rapid tectonic burial and exhumation of relatively thin tectonic slices.  相似文献   

GNSS变形监测网短基线时间序列噪声特性分析     

刘邢巍  席瑞杰 《大地测量与地球动力学》2019,39(4):404-409

利用时间跨度为5 a的GNSS短基线时间序列对噪声特性进行分析，发现长周期噪声分量（随机游走噪声）。选取最优噪声模型，评估不同噪声模型对测站周期振幅和线性速度估值的影响。结果表明，短基线时间序列中有色噪声应顾及闪烁噪声和随机游走噪声，对于表现出随机游走噪声的分量，可能与测站的真实运动有关；假设只有白噪声时求得的速度估值与最优噪声模型下求得的速度估值存在0.4~0.6 mm/a的偏差，对周期振幅的影响可以忽略。  相似文献   

Ekman模型时间变化风应力系数的伴随参数估计     

李国庆  高艳秋  张继才 《海洋与湖沼》2019,50(5):979-993

本文基于时间分布参数设置,利用伴随同化方法,反演了Ekman模型中随时间变化的风应力拖曳系数,并在孪生实验和实际实验中对该方法进行了验证。在孪生实验中,研究了参数反演结果对不同影响因素的响应,包括:风速分布、风应力系数分布、风应力系数初始猜测值、风应力系数独立变量个数、观测数据误差和观测的深度。孪生实验结果验证了伴随同化方法反演Ekman模型中时变风应力系数的有效性,具体包括如下五个方面结论:1)不同风速分布下均能成功反演出不同风应力拖曳系数分布; 2)反演结果对初始猜测值较为敏感,风应力系数初始猜测值越接近给定值,反演结果越好;3)风应力系数独立点个数的选取会显著影响反演结果,合理的选择有利于提高反演效率及减小观测数据误差;4)观测误差能够影响反演结果,观测数据误差在20%以下时能取得合理的反演结果; 5)反演结果对观测数据的表层和次表层流速更为敏感,这是由Ekman流的物理性质决定的。实际实验,利用百慕大锚系试验平台的风速和流速数据,去除周期性潮流和地转流成分后得到Ekman流成分,并作为观测输入到该同化模型,反演出了适用于该区域和该时段的随时间变化的风应力系数。通过比较模拟流速和观测流速,证明利用伴随同化方法能从实测数据中反演出合理的时变风应力系数,对于海洋模型风应力系数的确定是一项有益的尝试。  相似文献